AfCFTA bets $3.1 billion on making borders digital

We said on 8 September that Kenya's hawker order put East Africa's common market on trial; South Africa's version has run since June, and a peer parliament has now sent the bill. Ramaphosa set the right rule himself on 7 June — enforcing immigration law “rests with the state and the state alone” — and our Scorecard rates his conduct 4.2 out of 5, but by Abuja's count the attacks kept coming while the state's visible answer was deportation. The grievance the vigilantes exploit is jobs, and our data locates that stall at home: since 2018 South Africa's development delivery sits at the 10th percentile of African countries, with GDP per head down 4% to 2022 while the median African country's rose 1%. Nigeria's move is calibrated too — the legislature pulled the lever, not Tinubu's executive, and the directive binds only parliament. The real test for the SADC chair who pledged in August to lift regional trade to 50% is whether voters hear about a prosecuted ringleader, not a scapegoat, before the 4 November municipal elections.

We said in August that goods were getting a digital fast lane while people still waited at the counter; Nairobi has now shown what happens when a president closes the counter in one sentence. Kenya has every right to police permits, and its informal economy — some 18 million people — has real grievances about who competes at the bottom. But a rule announced by nationality and enforced by neighbours before any officer arrived is not regulation, it is a signal, and the 90-day window that corrected it came six days after the looting. The EAC Common Market Protocol, in force since 2010, is worth exactly what Nairobi does in a hard week — and Kampala and Kigali are watching the precedent. The real test is whether the expanded Local Content Bill ends up reserving trades by permit or by passport.

Zambia keeps doing the rarest thing in politics: settling power at the ballot box, repeatedly. The man who lost five elections before winning knows what defeat feels like — the best insurance a democracy can have. But courts that are hard to reach on deadline day chip away at exactly the trust that makes losers concede. Term two's real test: the debt exit, copper, and keeping the referee neutral.