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Tigray seizes three airports — Ethiopia's growth did not buy the Pretoria peace
Tigray forces seized the civilian airports of Mekelle, Axum and Shire and detained federal personnel, the African Union said on 23 September, as fighting spread across Tigray, Afar and Amhara three days after seven armed movements, among them the Tigray People's Liberation Front, formed an alliance to overthrow Abiy Ahmed's government (Al Jazeera, 24 September). AU Commission chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf called the seizures inconsistent with the Pretoria Agreement signed on 2 November 2022, which ended a war that killed hundreds of thousands, and asked Olusegun Obasanjo, the AU's High Representative for the Horn of Africa, to engage the parties urgently.
The African Union brokered the Pretoria Agreement, and on 23 September its Commission chairperson put in writing that the seizure of three civilian airports by Tigray forces is inconsistent with it — the guarantor is now also the first witness. Our Scorecard makes this hard to read as a story of economic failure: over 2018–2024 Ethiopia's development delivery sits at the 79th percentile of African countries, GDP per head up 18% while the median African country's was flat, yet rights and participation rank at P36, and our record check on Abiy Ahmed already fails on the war of 2020–22. Growth that fast did not buy a settlement, and the alliance formed on 20 September shows why: its seven movements come from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz, which makes this a quarrel with the federal bargain rather than with one region — though the government's claim, made by spokesperson Billene Seyoum, that Eritrea funds it is one Asmara denies. Our Power block adds that Ethiopia's constitution sets no term limit on the prime minister, and Abiy has held the office since April 2018: in demanding a transitional government, the alliance is asking for an exit the constitution never scheduled. The real test is whether Olusegun Obasanjo can bring the two Pretoria signatories back to one table before the fighting in Afar and Amhara opens fronts the 2022 text was never written to cover.
Whether Obasanjo has the two Pretoria signatories back at one table by the agreement's fourth anniversary on 2 November, and whether Ethiopian Airlines resumes flights to Mekelle before then.
SourcesAfrican Union Commission, Chairperson's statement on northern Ethiopia, 23 Sep · Al Jazeera, 24 Sep